The Great Freight Recession: Is The Market Improving?

The trucking industry shows signs of improvement as the rate of contraction slows and demand remains strong. It's crucial to note that this doesn't imply a thriving market but rather signifies progress in rebounding from the industry's prolonged downturn.

Business owners should interpret these positive trends cautiously, understanding that a return to the peak levels of 2022 is unlikely due to persistent high inflation and macroeconomic factors.

Image: Month Over Month Change In Authorized For Hire Carriers. Source: Motive

In March, the contraction in the trucking market notably decelerated, continuing its recovery from the record lows of 2022-23. Only 53% fewer trucking firms (totaling 1,827) exited the market in March, marking the lowest level of contraction in a year.

Additionally, there was a 9.1% increase in new carrier registrations, totaling 9,463 in March, the highest level in 12 months. These improvements are buoyed by sustained growth in retail demand and stable consumer confidence, offering carriers a positive shift after enduring an unprecedentedly long and severe market contraction following the pandemic.

Image: Total Authorized Carriers. Source: Motive

Visits to the top 50 retail warehouses are on the rise, reflecting a widespread surge in restocking as we move into the Spring and Summer seasons. The momentum in retailers replenishing their inventories remained strong in March. According to Motive’s Big Box Retail Index, truck visits to the warehouses of the top 50 US retailers surged by 6.9% since February and 3.9% year-over-year.

Image:Trucks Visiting Top 50 Retailer DCs. Source: Motive

Across various retail sectors, March marked the first month of gains for everyone this year. Discount retailers and wholesalers experienced their initial increase of 2024 at 1.5% year-over-year, while department stores, electronics, and apparel witnessed another significant surge at 18.2% year-over-year.